The next halving will be the most dramatic yet.

Prior to the November 2012 halving the price was $12 and there were 50 bitcoin being mined per block ($600) meaning the market was buying $604,800 of new bitcoin per week. That halving reduced the new supply by $302,400 per week causing the market cap to rise by $14 billion dollars after the halving.

Prior to the July 2016 halving the price was $650 and there were 25 bitcoin being mined per block ($16,250) meaning the market was buying $16,380,000 of new bitcoin per week. That halving reduced the new supply by $8,190,000 per week causing the market cap to rise by $300 billion dollars after the halving.

Prior to the May 2020 halving the price was $10,000 and there were 12.5 bitcoin being mined per block ($125,000) meaning the market was buying $126,000,000 of new bitcoin per week. That halving reduced the new supply by $63,000,000 per week causing the market cap to rise by $1.2 trillion dollars after the halving.

Prior to the April 2024 halving lets say the price is $30,000 (hypothetically for arguments sake) and there are 6.25 bitcoin being mined per block ($187,500) meaning the market will be buying $189,000,000 of new bitcoin per week. The halving will reduce the new supply by $94,500,000 per week potentially causing the market cap to rise by $1.8 trillion dollars after the halving.

In terms of demand for bitcoin being left with no new supply to buy because of a halving this would make the next halving the most dramatic yet.

Adding $1.8 trillion to bitcoins market cap would take it from $30k to $120k. And this is just the effect of the halving if nothing else changes between now and the halving. It does not take into account the positive effects of the spot ETFs or a financial/banking crisis that causes everyone to want to exit banks and enter bitcoin as a safe haven.

$120k per btc could be seen of as a base case and if demand increases because of the spot ETFs or other positive developments we could be looking at a $200k or $300k price per btc after the halving.