Theoretically, based on history, here’s how far Bitcoin actually drops after a peak

Here are the real nukes from every major Bitcoin cycle:

2013 → 2014 Peak: 1,150 Bottom: ~160 Drop: –86 percent

2017 → 2018 Peak: 19,700 Bottom: ~3,200 Drop: –84 percent

2021 → 2022 Peak: 69,000 Bottom: ~15,500 Drop: –77 percent

Another pattern: the real crash always starts a couple months into the next year.

2013 peak → crash in Jan 2014 2017 peak → crash in Jan 2018 2021 peak → crash in Jan 2022

So if 125k was the top for 2025, history points to:

Jan–Feb 2026: start of the drop Apr–Jun 2026: full capitulation Bottom range: about 35k to 50k

Not a prediction. Just the same pattern repeating for over a decade.

Edit:

Good point from u/Romanizer about the multipliers, so I ran the numbers and it actually fits the pattern even better:

2013 cycle: ~575× multiplier • ~86% drop

2017 cycle: ~117× multiplier • ~84% drop

2021 cycle: ~21× multiplier • ~77% drop

2025 cycle (if 125k): ~8× multiplier • ~65–75% drop (theoretical)

The multipliers collapse every cycle, but the drawdowns only soften gradually. So even with a smaller multiplier now, something around 65–75 percent ~$35k to $43k